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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-01 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 012048 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 Earlier observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and recent surface observations from Martinique indicate that Bertha still has a closed circulation, although the area of westerly winds south of the center is rather small. The aircraft- reported pressures were 1006-1007 mb, and the Martinique data suggests a current central pressure of 1007 mb. Based on this and the aircraft wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. New convection is currently developing in this bands near the center, with a more solid area of convection farther east. The initial motion is now 290/21. Bertha continues to be steered west-northwestward by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this should continue for the next 36-48 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This motion should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the Atlantic between Bermuda and New England, and then by a northeastward motion over the open North Atlantic. While the track guidance has nudged a little to the left since 6 hours ago, it remains in good agreement with this scenario. The new forecast track is therefore tweaked just a little to the left of the previous track, and it is a little faster than the previous track after recurvature. Bertha continues to experience about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and a combination of water vapor imagery and microwave total precipitable water shows abundant dry air near the storm. The forecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper- level troughs during the next 48 hours or so, which should cause some shear and dry air entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength should occur during that time. This part of the new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. Subsequently, Bertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater moisture. The intensity guidance responds to this by forecasting significant intensification, with several models showing Bertha becoming a hurricane during recurvature. Based on this, the latter part of the intensity forecast is nudged upward from the previous forecast, although it is still weaker than most of the guidance. An alternative scenario remains possible: that a combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when the system reaches the more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.0N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 22.4N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 38.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-01 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 Iselle has a well-defined structure in visible imagery and at times seems to have been trying to form an eye. However, the convective pattern as observed in infrared satellite imagery has been a little ragged and not as well structured. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are now unanimously T3.5/55 kt, but final-T estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT have actually dropped to T3.1/47 kt since this morning. Based on these numbers, as well as a 50-kt estimate from a recent ASCAT-B pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The strengthening trend may be taking a temporary respite, but environmental conditions should support further intensification during the next 2-3 days. Modest northerly shear appears to be impinging on the storm, but that shear is expected to diminish in a day or two. By that time, thermodynamic conditions will become a little more marginal as Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement in showing modest strengthening, although the peak intensities have decreased a bit. Based on the latest guidance, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Iselle reaching a maximum intensity of 70 kt in 36-48 hours. The track models are also in good agreement, showing very little spread during the first 3 days. The subtropical ridge to the north of Iselle should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward track during that time. Iselle's forward speed is then expected to slow down on days 3 and 4 as it gets impeded by a mid-level ridge near Hawaii, and then speed up again on day 5 when the ridge slides eastward. No significant changes were required to the official track forecast, and the NHC points continue to lie very close the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.5N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.9N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.3N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 16.6N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.9N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Landstar System Inc - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of...
2014-08-01 17:30:22| Trucking - Topix.net
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the attached interim consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, and with the Company's audited financial statements and notes thereto for the fiscal year ended December 28, 2013 and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations included in ... (more)
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-01 16:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 Bertha is disorganized this morning. While satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main convective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open wave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the east-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface winds in excess of 40 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours Bertha may be moving even faster. The cyclone is currently being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the Atlantic north of Bermuda. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is therefore an update of the previous forecast. Bertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry mid-/upper-level air near the storm. The forecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the next 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength should occur during the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater moisture. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except the Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when the system reaches the more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-01 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011434 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 Recent microwave data indicate that Iselle has a well-defined structure with a nearly closed ring of deep convection around the center. In infrared satellite imagery, hints of a possible ragged eye have been noted although the convection is a little thin on the western side. Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from SAB, T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T3.9/63 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt based on a blend of these data. The subtropical ridge continues to propel Iselle west-northwestward with an estimated motion of 295/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. By day 3, however, a mid- to upper- level trough is forecast to amplify off the California coast while a fairly strong mid-level high becomes established just to the northeast of Hawaii. This pattern should cause Iselle to move more slowly toward the west between days 3 through 5. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first 2 days of the forecast but then diverges a bit thereafter, with the GFS and HWRF taking Iselle on a more northern trajectory and the ECMWF and GFDL staying farther to the south. The NHC official track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains near the multi-model consensus TVCE. UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that about 10 kt of northerly shear is affecting Iselle, which could be contributing to the thin convection on the western side. The shear is expected to change little for the next 24 hours but should then decrease thereafter. The thermodynamic environment will become a little more marginal in 2-3 days when Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm and slightly more stable air. Therefore, Iselle is likely to peak in intensity in the next 36-48 hours and then gradually weaken on days 3-5. The intensity models have come into much better agreement compared to yesterday, and no significant changes were required to the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.1N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 15.9N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 16.5N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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