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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-06 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062048 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Satellite imagery shows that Julio has become a little better organized, with multiple convective bands near the center and an eye possibly trying to form. The latest SSM/IS overpass, though, suggests the eyewall is still open to the north. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt and 65 kt, so the initial intensity remains at a possibly-conservative 65 kt. The cirrus outflow remains good over the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is now 290/15, which is a little to the right of the previous advisory. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward. Based on current trends, Julio is likely to be a little north of the previous forecast during the first 48 hours or so. However, at the later times the dynamical models have shifted southward since their previous forecasts, with the most notable shift by the GFS. The consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope have also shifted southward at 96-120 hours. The new track forecast will also be adjusted southward at those times, but it lies a little to the north of the consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Hurricane Iselle, and this data is also expected to help subsequent forecasts of Julio. The dynamical models have come into reasonably good agreement that Julio will remain in a light vertical wind shear environment through the forecast period. Thus, the intensity is most likely going to be controlled by sea surface temperatures and nearby dry air. While Julio is moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is expected to traverse sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C and gradually move into a drier air mass. This should cause a gradual weakening for the rest of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly from the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. It should be noted that despite the marginal sea surface temperatures and moisture, none of the dynamical models forecast Julio to dissipate during the next 5 days. Indeed, the GFDL and HWRF are stronger than the current forecast at 96-120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.8N 131.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.3N 134.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.9N 137.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.4N 140.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.0N 143.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 154.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Kirby Corp - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial ...
2014-08-06 17:49:16| Appliances - Topix.net
Statements contained in this Form 10-Q that are not historical facts, including, but not limited to, any projections contained herein, are forward-looking statements and involve a number of risks and uncertainties.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-08-06 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061435 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014 Satellite images indicate that Bertha has become associated with a frontal system and has acquired extratropical characteristics. The low-level center is devoid of deep convection and is on the cold air side of a frontal cloud band or trough extending from Nova Scotia southwestward to the Bahamas. In addition, there is a strong westerly upper-level jet over the system. The low is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 27 knots steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Most of the global models keep the post-tropical cyclone moving rapidly northeastward and then eastward over the North Atlantic. This is the last advisory issued by the NHC on Bertha. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 40.2N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 07/0000Z 42.3N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 45.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 47.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 48.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 48.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 48.5N 8.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...Absorbed $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-06 16:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061431 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While cloud tops near the center are about -80C, AMSR-2 microwave imagery a few hours ago showed that the eyewall was open to the north. That, combined with a large arc cloud seen moving northward away from the center, suggests that dry air entrainment is occurring on the north side. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB. Given the current appearance, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The cirrus outflow is good over the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is still 285/15, and there is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward and pass north of the Islands. There is some spread in the guidance by 96-120 hours. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL are on the south side of the guidance envelope forecasting a track closer to Hawaii, while the GFS, GFS Ensemble Mean, and Canadian models are on the right side of the guidance envelope. The center of the envelope and the consensus models are very close to the previous forecast, and thus the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast. Julio is in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and it should remain over sea surface temperatures of 26C or warmer for the next 12-24 hours. This should allow some strengthening if the storm can fight off the current dry air intrusion. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C, which should cause some weakening. There is disagreement in the dynamical models about how much shear Julio should encounter while over the cooler water, particularly near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET forecasts stronger shear, while the GFS/ECMWF are forecasting less shear. The intensity forecast leans toward the GFS/ECMWF scenario and thus calls for Julio to slowly weaken after 36 hours. The new forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and is similar to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.2N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 138.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.7N 141.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 21.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-06 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060851 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 A small burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C has developed over the low-level center, resulting in the formation of a central dense overcast feature. In addition, passive microwave satellite imagery has been indicating a 75-100 percent closed low- to mid-level eye feature since about 0100 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Julio the fifth hurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season. The initial motion estimate is 285/15 kt based on a blend of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands on Days 4 and 5, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward, passing just north of the Islands. However, the new model runs, which have incorporated the 0000 UTC NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data are not showing as much erosion of the ridge as in previous runs, and the response has been a slight southward shift of the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly southward after that, similar to the consensus model TVCE, but not as far south as the ECMWF model. The latter model brings Julio much closer to the Hawaiian Islands since it no longer develops a break in the ridge. The developing eye feature, low shear of less than 5 kt, and a moistening mid-troposphere argue for at least some modest strengthening for the next 36 hours or so as Julio moves from a SST cold pool and over a warmer oceanic ridge. These condition also typically favor rapid intensification, which would be a possibility, except for the occasional intrusions of cooler and more stable air from the north. However, it wouldn't be surprising if Julio reaches its peak intensity a little sooner than forecast while the upper-level outflow pattern continues to expand. By 48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air mass, which should induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory and the consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.7N 137.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.3N 140.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.5N 145.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 20.4N 151.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 23.0N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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