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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 38

2019-10-01 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 012034 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days. Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model. Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 37.0N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 37

2019-10-01 16:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours. Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Narda Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-10-01 16:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Narda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Surface observations and first-light visible satellite imagery show that the surface circulation of Narda has dissipated along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The system is also producing negligible deep convection. Therefore, this is the last advisory. Moisture associated with Narda will continue to lift northward and northeastward across portions of northern Mexico and the U.S. Southern plains through Wednesday. This moisture will contribute to heavy rain, with the threat of flash flooding. For more information about the threat of heavy rains and flooding in the U.S., please see products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.3N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NARDA 12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-10-01 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 The ill-defined surface center of Narda is a bit difficult to find this morning, but the best estimate, using conventional satellite imagery, is just offshore of the mainland Mexico coast and about 30 miles southeast of the now decoupled mid-level circulation. The majority of the deep convection associated with the cyclone has moved inland. However, sustained tropical-storm-force winds may still exist along and just offshore of the coast, north of Los Mochis, Sinaloa and south of Guaymas, Sonora. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Although Narda's center has re-emerged over the Gulf of California, further weakening is still forecast, and dissipation of the cyclone is anticipated as it once again moves inland over the rugged terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico on Wednesday. It's worth noting, however, that a couple of the large-scale models indicate Narda's remnants drifting back just offshore over the central Gulf of California prior to dissipation. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/12 kt. This general northwestward motion, within the mid-level southwestern peripheral flow of strong high pressure ridging to the northeast, is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new NHC forecast track is changed little from the previous one. The main hazard produced by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of deep-layer moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 36

2019-10-01 10:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010841 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48 hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the cyclone should dissipate over Europe. The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough. There is still significant track model divergence around this time, and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance envelope. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 35.9N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 45.5N 24.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 51.0N 18.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0600Z 56.5N 8.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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