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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-17 22:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172045 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the southeastern United States. The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States. Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear. Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually weaken. Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-17 22:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Conventional satellite imagery and a series of microwave overpasses indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has developed a well-defined center of circulation. The much improved cloud pattern consists of prominent convective curved bands in the east semicircle and recent bursts of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70C near the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt, and advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression at this time. The intensity forecast is a bit hazy. However, all of the large- scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show only slight intensification through the 72 hour period. The inhibiting contribution appears to be a rather dry low- to mid-level surrounding environment. Beyond 72 hours, most of the global and regional models show the cyclone weakening into a remnant low and remaining embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for only modest strengthening into a tropical storm in 12 hours, then weakening back to a depression in 36 hours. Through the remainder of the forecast, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or less, as the global guidance shows. The initial motion appears to be a rather unpredictable slow drift within weak low- to mid-level steering currents while attached to the ITCZ. The global models are unanimous in maintaining an erratic looping track pattern through the entire period, and the official forecast follows suit, based primarily on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 10.1N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-17 17:03:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171503 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico. The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the associated convection is getting better organized. However, a strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge watches/warnings are being issued. The system should track generally northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track brings the system across the southeastern United States between 48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States. Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time. Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the arrival of the center. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 22.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-16 19:52:59| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-16 16:33:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
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