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Remnants of Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-21 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 807 WTPZ44 KNHC 210234 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Priscilla Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 The rugged terrain of Mexico has taken a toll on Priscilla. Surface observations indicate that the system no longer has a closed surface circulation, and therefore this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is still a fair amount of deep convection associated with the remnant trough over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico. Since the surface trough is expected to linger for another couple of days over southwestern Mexico, there remains a significant threat of heavy rains and flash flooding over that region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-20 22:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Priscilla Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Priscilla moved inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico around 1930 UTC just to the east of Manzanillo. The rugged terrain in that area is expected to cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken and dissipate by 12 hours, if not sooner. Satellite intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T2.7/37 kt and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an intensity of 35 kt at that time. However, the intensity has been decreased to 30 kt at the advisory time since Priscilla is now located inland, with most of the deep convection having been displaced well to the north of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Tropical Depression Priscilla will continue to move northward and farther inland over southwestern Mexico, resulting in rapid weakening and dissipation during the next 12 hours. A 12-hour forecast position was provided mainly for continuity purposes. The primary threat with Priscilla and its remnants will be heavy rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-20 16:40:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 201440 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Deep convection, with some overshooting cloud tops to -90 deg C, has continued to develop and expand since the previous advisory. Most of the convective cloud mass has been displaced into the western semicircle due to modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the cold cloud canopy has expanded eastward over the center during the past couple of hours, suggesting that the cyclone is becoming better organized and has also strengthened. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind data that showed 32-33 kt in the southwestern quadrant, along with the much- improved satellite signature since the time of the ASCAT passes. The 35-kt intensity is also supported by recent satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt and T2.3/33 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively. Thus, the cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Storm Priscilla at 1200 UTC. Priscilla is moving a little west of due north or 355/6 kt. The small cyclone is expected to move generally northward around the western extent of a deep-layer ridge that is oriented east-to-west across the Bay of Campeche and south-central Mexico. This slow motion should bring the center of Priscilla inland over southwestern Mexico late this afternoon or early evening. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes to the previous track forecast were required. Priscilla will be moving over SSTs in excess of 29 deg C and into an upper-level environment of gradually decreasing shear, so some additional slight strengthening will be possible before landfall occurs in about 12 hours. However, the peak intensity likely will not be much higher than 40 kt. After moving inland, Priscilla will rapidly weaken and dissipate due to the rugged mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The primary threat with Tropical Storm Priscilla will be heavy rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR MEXICAN COAST 24H 21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-20 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200845 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better organized overnight. Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models indicate that the depression will move generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico later today or early tonight. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields. The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an area of moderate easterly shear. In fact, the center of the depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the convective mass. Due to the shear and the very short time the system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico. The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192041 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia. The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt. Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200 UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. Key Messages: 1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday. 2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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