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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-10-01 04:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near Los Mochis. Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40 kt. Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has likely decreased. Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks. Now that Narda's center has moved inland again over the mountainous terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. However, tropical-storm-force winds are still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so. Terrain interaction should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or dissipating by 48 hours. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST 24H 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 35
2019-10-01 04:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010245 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses. The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore. It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-30 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively. Recent ASCAT data supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right of the current NHC forecast track. Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200 UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 34
2019-09-30 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum central pressure of 957 mb. Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72 hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The official forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the consensus aids. The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that time. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.9N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-30 17:02:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301502 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours, but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies in between these two scenarios. Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 30.0N 42.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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