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Remnants of Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-16 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160833 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Fifteen Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019 Satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of the system has become rather elongated north-to-south, with only a few weak swirls in the circulation envelope, and has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory. The winds are lowered to 25 kt, matching the TAFB classification. The remnants of the cyclone are expected to move northwestward during the next few days. There is a slight chance of regeneration, as suggested by the ECMWF model and some of its ensemble members due to a trough interaction, but that's considered unlikely at this point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.3N 24.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-16 10:32:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-16 04:48:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-10-16 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 035 WTNT45 KNHC 160235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The tropical depression located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become less organized over the past 6 hours. An ASCAT-A overpass at 2154 UTC showed that the depression still had a closed and well-defined center, but the strongest winds were only 20-25 kt. A subsequent ASCAT-B pass about 1 hour later showed slightly higher winds but an elongated circulation. Furthermore, deep convection is limited to a small area of showers located nearly 100 n mi to the east of the depression's center. If its convection continues to decrease, the system could become a remnant low later today. Alternatively, if its circulation continues to become elongated, it could soon open into a trough and dissipate. Either way, it seems unlikely that the depression will remain a tropical cyclone for long, and this shown by all of the models and the official forecast. The depression has made a westward jog since the last advisory, but a longer-term motion estimate is 300/09 kt. The westward jog resulted in a substantial westward shift in the official forecast track, but the system is still expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or two until it dissipates. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the main source of uncertainty is just how quickly the system will open into a trough. The latest ECMWF deterministic forecast and few of its ensemble members indicate that the cyclone could regenerate later this week. However, most other models do not forecast regeneration and the uncertainty is too high to justify explicitly showing this in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-15 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152051 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The multiple circulations mentioned in the previous advisory discussion now appear to have consolidated into a tight low-level center that has recently passed over or near Sal island in the northeastern Cabo Verde archipelago. Deep convection has increased slightly and now consists of an elongated band confined to the eastern semicircle due to modest southwesterly vertical wind shear, leaving the low-level center exposed to the west. A late-arriving 1128Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated several 28-29 kt surface wind vectors within the band of convection, which supports maintaining an intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/09 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement that the large cyclone will move generally northwestward during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn to the west-northwest when the expected shallow system will become embedded in the brisk low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the left of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The environmental conditions are expected to only be marginal, so little, if any, strengthening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. By 24 hours and beyond, the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 26C should cause steady to rapid weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipating shortly after 72 hours, if not sooner. Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm as it passes near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 22.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 24.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.9N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 21.2N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 23.0N 32.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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