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BikeLoudPDX Discussion Draft Letter
2019-09-27 20:53:49| PortlandOnline
BikeLoudPDX Discussion Draft Letter PDF Document, 216kbCategory: Transportation System Plan (TSP)
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SE in Active Motion Discussion Draft Letter
2019-09-27 20:53:48| PortlandOnline
Word Document, 44kbCategory: Transportation System Plan (TSP)
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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-27 16:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-27 16:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest. The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models. Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-27 10:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt. The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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