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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-08-29 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 154 WTPZ41 KNHC 291434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and SSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to form. The area of convection is large with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the upper-level outflow is expanding westward. Based on objective and subjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt. The environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to intensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are quite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to start moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as the nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and amplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the next 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3 to 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-08-29 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 957 WTPZ45 KNHC 291434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Although Miriam remains a sheared tropical cyclone, recent geostationary satellite data and a 1002 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicates that there has been some improvement in the structure of the cyclone. The microwave data showed an increase in banding over the eastern portion of the circulation and less separation between the convection and the low-level center. Therefore, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a blend of the most recent subjective Dvorak classifications and objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS. The northwesterly shear over the cyclone appears to have abated slightly, and a further slight reduction in shear could allow Miriam to reach hurricane strength within the next 24-36 h. Most of the intensity guidance agrees, and the NHC intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the first 36 h. After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters are expected to cause Miriam to weaken fairly quickly and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by day 4. Miriam continues to move westward or 275/10 kt. The cyclone is approaching the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and the global models indicate that Miriam will slow down and turn west-northwestward very soon. By Thursday, a large mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then northward through 72 hours. At days 3 and beyond, there continues to be significant model differences with the ECMWF still taking Miriam faster and much farther northward, while the GFS moves a much weaker Miriam westward. Since Miriam is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system around that time, the NHC forecast leans toward the more westward scenario, but is not as far south and west as the GFS. The new NHC track is south of the various consensus aids at day 5, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and UKMET model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 139.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 23.8N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 26.7N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-08-29 10:54:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 475 WTPZ41 KNHC 290854 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Even though there has been a dearth of microwave imagery overnight, Norman's infrared satellite signature has the look of a cyclone ready to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days. Banding continues to increase, with the convective canopy expanding in nearly all quadrants. Norman's initial intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ocean waters of nearly 30 degrees Celsius and low shear for the next couple of days are offering an ideal environment for Norman to rapidly intensify. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities, and overall the new intensity guidance is higher than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Based on these numbers, the updated NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward, close to the Florida State Superensemble and intensity consensus aids, but still not nearly as high as the HWRF or HCCA models. It wouldn't be surprising at all for the forecast intensities to be increased further in subsequent advisory packages, and Norman is likely to become a hurricane later today. Norman is moving westward, or 275/9 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge, which extends westward from northern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward during the next few days, causing Norman to continue westward--or even west-southwestward--at a fairly steady pace for the next 4-5 days. Except for the GFS, which appears to be a bit of a northern outlier, the remainder of the track guidance is tightly clustered, at least for the first 3 days. After that time, the overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward, requiring a subtle northward adjustment of the NHC official forecast by day 5. This new forecast generally lies closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.5N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-08-29 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 921 WTPZ45 KNHC 290853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 At face value, Miriam seems to be getting a little better organized. Its convective canopy has been expanding during the past few hours, and continuous lightning strokes have been detected within a well-defined mid-level circulation. However, a 0637 UTC METOP-B microwave pass shows that Miriam remains a sheared cyclone, with the low-level center running out ahead of the deep convection. Still, with the expanding convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have risen to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Miriam is moving westward, or 275/11 kt, near the western end of the subtropical ridge. A deep-layer low located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to cause Miriam to slow down and turn sharply northwestward and northward during the next 48 hours. The models are in excellent agreement on this scenario. After day 3, however, there are significant differences among the guidance, with the GFS taking a shallow cyclone almost due westward and the ECMWF continuing to accelerate a deeper Miriam northward on the east side of the deep-layer low. With these models being the most acute outliers, the NHC forecast track thinking continues to lie close to the tight clustering of the Florida State Superensemble, HCCA, and TVCX consensus aids. There is also greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The SHIPS and LGEM models show northwesterly shear persisting over Miriam and only strengthen the cyclone slightly during the next 24-36 hours. The HWRF and HCCA models are still showing more significant strengthening, making Miriam a hurricane over the next day or two. I was tempted to explicitly show Miriam becoming a hurricane in the official forecast, but I decided to hold off since the cyclone just hasn't been able to display an improved structure as of yet. Even if some strengthening does occur, vertical shear is expected to increase substantially from 48 hours onward, which will cause fast weakening and Miriam likely degenerating into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.2N 138.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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A Discussion on Risk in the Seniors Housing Sector

2018-08-29 09:27:26| National Real Estate Investor

What are the risks facing operators and financiers of seniors housing and care facilities?

Tags: discussion risk sector housing

 

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