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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-05-11 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110842 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours. Despite the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. Since the shear is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low should then dissipate in about 3 days. The depression has been moving due westward during the past few hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down during the next couple of days. The updated NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-05-11 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center even though it is encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing the cyclone to even stronger shear. Based on this, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less than 24 h. One small change from the previous forecast is to keep the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the dynamical model guidance. The initial motion is 295/8. Through its lifetime, the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-05-10 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5 knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a weak subtropical ridge is anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

PBOT Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Discussion Draft

2018-05-10 20:01:56| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 526kbCategory: Handouts

Tags: management discussion demand transportation

 

Free Lunch & Panel Discussion with AAPI Leaders

2018-05-08 21:01:42| PortlandOnline

Tags: free discussion panel leaders

 

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