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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-05-28 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto has struggled to produce significant deep convection since early this morning, however, there are several bands of shallow convection that wrap around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not found winds as high as last evening, but has reported SFMR winds of 45 to 50 kt which support an initial intensity of 50 kt. The pressure has risen a couple of millibars with data from a recent center dropsonde supporting a minimum pressure of 992 mb. Since the primary convective bands are already moving onshore along the coast of the Florida panhandle, little change in strength is expected through landfall later today. After landfall, Alberto should quickly weaken and become a depression tonight or early Tuesday, then degenerate into a remnant low over the Tennessee Valley in about 36 hours. The latest couple of center fixes from the aircraft show that Alberto has jogged to the east this morning. The longer-term motion, however, is generally northward at about 7 kt. A northward to north-northwestward motion should bring the center onshore in the Florida panhandle this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the system should continue generally northward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. Before the system is absorbed by a frontal boundary over Canada late in the week, it should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving through the central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and only minor adjustments were needed to the previous NHC track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and flash flooding will continue over central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida today. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 29.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 30.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 33.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.9N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 38.9N 87.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 44.9N 84.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 48.5N 78.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-05-28 10:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280844 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto is holding its strength this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found winds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of about 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also indicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990 mb. Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry slots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving onshore over the Florida Panhandle. Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall, its overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches the coast this afternoon. Once Alberto is inland, land interaction should cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The global models show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the Great Lakes region by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. The center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down significantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is northwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants, over the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. A turn to the northeast is predicted before Alberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and flash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida today. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 30.1N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.1N 86.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1800Z 34.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 37.4N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 43.0N 86.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-05-28 04:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280244 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center. Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The system is still not well organized with some elongation of the center noted. Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially closed. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall, which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions. The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now estimated to be 315/08 kt. Alberto is moving on the northeastern side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation. Early this week, a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough will approach Alberto from the northwest. This pattern should induce a northward turn over the next few days. Due to the recent more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the previous one. Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-05-28 02:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280038 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 This special advisory is being issued to show that, based on observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that Alberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt. Based on this, the intensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward. No change has been made to the track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0030Z 28.4N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-05-27 22:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272039 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low. After that time, the system should continue moving northward between the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track during the first 24 to 36 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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