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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-11-08 09:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080851 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 Satellite imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that Rina has taken on a tight comma-cloud appearance, more indicative of a sub-tropical cyclone than a tropical system. Although an eye-like feature has recently developed, it appears to be tilted about 20-30 nmi to the north of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were ST3.0/45-50 kt from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB. Data from a late-arriving, partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0029Z indicated 46-kt surface winds well east of the center, and the cloud pattern has improved since that time. Based these data, the intensity of Rina has been increased to 50 kt. Rina is moving northward or 010/17 kt. Rina is located just north of the axis of a deep-layer ridge, which is located to the east of the cyclone. As a result, a northward to north-northeastward motion is expected for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, a shortwave trough situated to the southwest of Rina should induce acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday, followed by a more rapid motion of 30-35 kt by Thursday night and Friday as westerly flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough captures the system. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted to the west some, but the official forecast track has only been nudged slightly in that direction due to a distinct westward bias noted in the model guidance during the past 48 hours. Although some sight strengthening could occur during the next 6-12 hours, the overall intensity trend is forecast to change little during the period due to the combination of cold SSTs of less than 20 deg C by 18 h and increasing vertical wind shear of more than 35 kt by 36 hours. By 24 h, Rina should become a post-tropical cyclone over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic and become extratropical and merge with a front by 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 37.1N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 39.7N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 43.6N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 09/1800Z 48.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 53.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-11-08 03:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080236 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical characteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and southwest. The center remains exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding. Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased to around 45 kt. Rina is forecast to remain within an environment of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours, however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough. By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder waters and is forecast to become post-tropical. The cyclone should become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday. Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the global models. The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 35.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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AILA Panel Discussion, Immigration, Know Your Rights (11/6/17)

2017-11-07 23:00:28| PortlandOnline

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AILA Panel Discussion, Immigration, Know Your Rights (11/6/17)

2017-11-07 22:58:40| PortlandOnline

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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 7

2017-11-07 21:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 072033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Satellite images show that Rina has a sheared appearance with an asymmetric area of convection near and northeast of the center along with a large cloud shield in the northern semicircle. An earlier ASCAT pass had 35 kt winds well east of the center and, given that the pass likely missed the strongest winds, the wind speed is set to 40 kt on this advisory. Rina is moving in a moderate shear, marginally unstable environment characterized by cool upper-level temperatures counteracting cool SSTs. These conditions along the path of the cyclone don't change much during the next 24-36 hours, so a continuation of the slow increase in wind speed is forecast. After that time, Rina is forecast to move over much colder water into higher shear, which should cause weakening, and will eventually turn Rina into an extratropical cyclone in about 2 days. Most of the models show only slight strengthening over the next day or so, and the official forecast follows suit, close to the SHIPS model for a peak intensity. Rina is moving northward, now at 16 kt. The storm should turn to the north-northeast around a high over the eastern Atlantic late tomorrow. Rina should move quite rapidly to the northeast on Thursday as it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The global models, other than some forward speed differences, remain in good agreement, and the latest forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the corrected-consensus models. Most of the guidance stretch the system out over the North Atlantic, causing the low to dissipate by 72 hours west of Ireland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 33.8N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 39.4N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 43.0N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 48.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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