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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-06-10 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Recent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is better organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature. Although Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support hurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory. The environment is quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid intensification indexes suggest that this process will occur during the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that Bud's inner core structure is improving. The official forecast calls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus numerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. This motion should keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right of the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast within the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. All interests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud. Even if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 19

2018-06-10 10:46:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 10 2018

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-06-10 10:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over the southeastern portions of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is low shear over the storm and the ocean waters are very warm. These environmental factors should continue to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a hurricane within a day or so. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance. As noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification, especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about 310/8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the high. This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula later in the week. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity forecasts. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-10 04:34:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-06-10 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved bands of deep convection developing around the center while the upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5 supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt winds in this advisory. Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the SHIPS model. Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the confidence in the official forecast. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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