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PUB Discussion Guide Board Procedures

2017-11-07 20:34:12| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 152kbCategory: November 7, 2017 Materials

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PUB Discussion Guide Statement for BES Strategic Plan

2017-11-07 20:30:58| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 176kbCategory: November 7, 2017 Materials

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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-11-07 15:46:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071446 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Thunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern side of Rina. However, the center remains partially exposed due to southwesterly shear. Although the overall convective pattern is more organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue to support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. The environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly supportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate shear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs. In about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and become post-tropical. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus. Rina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to accelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Rina should move rather rapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern Atlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only small changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC prediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range. The storm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 32.4N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-11-07 09:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070844 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal coverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep convection having developed near the well-defined low-level center. In addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of the center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that datum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb. Satellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5, so the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which could be conservative given the lower central pressure. The initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the cyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and then toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little more to left, so the new official forecast track has also been nudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Based on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of Rina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also become better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for the next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400 nmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water temperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of increasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two negative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-11-07 03:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070236 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and 01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center. Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20 kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track. After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids. The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in agreement with global model fields. The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle, and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 30.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.4N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 35.4N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 42.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 51.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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