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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-10-27 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The center of Selma became exposed shortly after the issuance of the previous advisory, however, deep convection has redeveloped near and just south of the center this afternoon. The system is feeling the affects of moderate northeasterly shear and does not appear to have strengthened. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 (30 kt), however, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt in agreement with the overnight ASCAT data. Unfortunately, the ASCAT satellites did not pass over the tropical cyclone today. Satellite and microwave fixes show that Selma has turned more poleward and is now moving north-northwestward or 345/6 kt. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday which should cause Selma to turn northward later today or tonight. The 12Z track guidance has come into better agreement and brings Selma onshore in El Salvador or eastern Guatemala on Saturday, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast track. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is expected to remain over the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, and little overall change in strength is expected before landfall. Selma should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Central America Saturday night or Sunday. It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.7N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 12.5N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 13.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 14.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-10-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Selma is a sheared tropical cyclone. Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave imagery show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a small, but persistent cluster of deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are still below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity remains at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data. Recent satellite and microwave fixes indicate that Selma is moving northwestward at about 4 kt. A weak ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to weaken today as a large mid-latitude trough moves into the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause Selma to turn northward toward the Pacific coast of Central America tonight and early Saturday. However, there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the sharpness of the turn. The UKMET shows an immediate northward or northeastward motion and is along the right side of the guidance envelope. On the opposite side of the envelope are the GFS, HWRF, and HMON, which depict a longer north- northwestward motion and bring Selma inland near western Guatemala. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models, which are a little to the right of the multi-model consensus. Given the large uncertainty in the track forecast, the government of Guatemala has issued a tropical storm watch for the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala. The shear over Selma appears to be a little stronger than initially expected, and the SHIPS guidance does not show any decrease in this shear during the next day or so. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicted before landfall, and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models. Since the system is small, it is expected to weaken and dissipate very quickly after it moves inland over the high terrain of Central America. It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.1N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.8N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.0N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.2N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-10-27 10:54:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270854 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has become more concentrated over the past several hours in the western semicircle of the low over the far eastern part of the eastern Pacific. Scatterometer data from overnight also indicate that the low has become well defined, with winds of about 35 kt. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Selma. This is a rare location for a tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific, and this is the only the second tropical storm to form on record east of 90W that didn't come from an Atlantic cyclone (the first was Alma 2008). A weak ridge of high pressure over southeastern Mexico is causing the storm to move slowly northwestward. However, this pattern is forecast to change quickly as the ridge breaks down due to a large mid-latitude trough dropping into the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. This pattern should steer Selma toward the north over the weekend, although the models are in rather poor agreement on exactly when that turn occurs. To complicate matters, there is also some chance of interaction with the Caribbean disturbance AL93, with the models showing the most interaction, such as the UKMET or ECMWF, having tracks on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS-based guidance shows little interaction and shows a track more toward Guatemala. The NHC forecast splits the difference between the model consensus and the ECMWF, and is just east of the latest NOAA-corrected consensus, necessitating a Tropical Storm Warning for El Salvador. This is a low confidence forecast due to the large spread in the guidance and a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be required for portions of the coast of Guatemala later today. Selma has a day or so of very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear in its path. These conditions should promote strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the bulk of the models. It should be emphasized, however, that the most significant hazard expected with Selma is heavy rainfall. Up to 10 inches of rain are possible over El Salvador and southern Guatemala, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 11.3N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 12.5N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 13.7N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Full Discussion Draft for the Off-road Cycling Master Plan

2017-10-26 21:43:23| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 11,927kbCategory: Off-road Cycling Discussion Draft

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Two sides to the death tax discussion

2017-10-25 22:12:49| Beef

Are you in favor of axing the death tax, or do you think it impacts so few that it should remain? Voice your opinion on todays blog.

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