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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-14 05:07:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 02:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 03:04:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 40
2016-10-14 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140234 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 The satellite presentation of Nicole has degraded substantially this evening, with the area of cold convective tops shrinking in size and become less symmetric. The low-level center is difficult to locate in geostationary imagery, but recent microwave data suggest it is located to the southwest of the coldest convective tops. This structure is consistent with the 40-45 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over Nicole by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, which is between the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due to the persistent strong shear and cooling SSTs. However, from 24-48 hours, forcing associated with a shortwave trough should cause Nicole to remain a powerful cyclone, and the intensity is maintained at 75 kt through that time. After the shortwave moves past Nicole, slow decay is expected late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one in the first 12-24 hours, following the trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. After that time, the intensity forecast is based on global model guidance. Note that the structure of Nicole is quite uncertain during the forecast period, since the cyclone does not appear to complete extratropical transition, with the global models showing the cyclone acquiring a warm seclusion structure. A 2201Z WindSat pass suggested that the center of Nicole was located a little south of previous estimates. The initial motion is estimated to be 060/18, as Nicole is now embedded in the mid- latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a longwave trough moving off the U.S. east coast. This pattern should steer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next 48 hours, although the forward speed will decrease by 36 hours as Nicole interacts with the aforementioned shortwave. The trough moves east of Nicole by 72 hours, leaving the cyclone in a region of weaker steering flow until a high-latitude trough approaches from the northwest in 4-5 days, and cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one due to the initial position and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period. The post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 34.4N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 35.6N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 36.9N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 38.6N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/0000Z 39.0N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/0000Z 47.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-14 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...SWELLS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 13 the center of NICOLE was located near 34.4, -61.2 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 40
2016-10-14 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 ...NICOLE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...SWELLS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 61.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. An east- northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Nicole is expected to remain a powerful cyclone even when it could become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole will begin to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2016-10-14 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 140234 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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