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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 40

2016-10-14 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 61.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 400SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 61.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.6N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.9N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.6N 49.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 160NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 270SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.0N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 47.0N 37.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics

2016-10-14 01:39:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 23:39:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 21:04:36 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-14 01:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICOLE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Oct 13 the center of NICOLE was located near 33.8, -62.3 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 39A

2016-10-14 01:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132339 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 800 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 ...NICOLE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 62.3W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the east- northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Nicole is expected to remain at hurricane intensity even though it could become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts of tropical storm force are possible on Bermuda this evening. STORM SURGE: Water levels on Bermuda should subside this evening. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda and spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics

2016-10-13 23:07:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 20:33:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 21:04:36 GMT

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