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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2016-10-15 16:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 151458 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-15 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS THAT NICOLE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 15 the center of NICOLE was located near 39.0, -50.3 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 46

2016-10-15 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS THAT NICOLE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 50.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 50.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a continued eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday night. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, while gradual weakening is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole are beginning to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada and will continue through the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 46

2016-10-15 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151457 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 50.3W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 270SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 450SE 600SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 50.3W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 48.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.8N 45.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.1N 44.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 47.5N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 56.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 64.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 50.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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