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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-14 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 14 the center of NICOLE was located near 36.5, -55.7 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 43
2016-10-14 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 ...NICOLE CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 55.7W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 55.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. However, Nicole could become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole will begin to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 43
2016-10-14 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142035 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 55.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 55.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 52.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.3N 50.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.5N 48.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.7N 47.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 300SW 390NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 40.5N 45.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...390NE 300SE 360SW 330NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 53.0N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 55.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-14 16:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 14:44:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 14:41:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 42
2016-10-14 16:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141443 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 Nicole continues to become less organized in satellite imagery, with the main convective area now well removed from the center over the northern semicircle and only shallow convection remaining near the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 and 55 kt respectively, and the latest CIMSS SATCON estimate is 68 kt. Based on these data and the decay of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt. The initial motion is 060/16. Nicole is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through southeastern Canada. The dynamical models forecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours or so, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward speed during the 24-72 hour period. Subsequently, a new mid- latitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer Nicole northeastward at a faster forward speed. The guidance is tightly clustered through 48-72 hours, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the guidance has shifted northward, and the new forecast track is also nudged northward. The dynamical models are in good agreement that Nicole should interact with the mid-latitude trough starting in the next 12-24 hours, with the models forecasting a central pressure below 950 mb in about 36 hours. As this occurs, the cyclone is expected to develop into a post-tropical cyclone with the warm core secluded inside an encircling cooler air mass. The guidance suggests that Nicole will not fully develop frontal features during the forecast period, so the new intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone through 120 hours. The post-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and wind radii forecasts have been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.8N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.9N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/0000Z 38.5N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1200Z 38.7N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/1200Z 40.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/1200Z 44.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/1200Z 51.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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