je.st
news
Tag: nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-15 04:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 02:47:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 02:45:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
nicole
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-15 04:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE NOW A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 14 the center of NICOLE was located near 37.4, -53.3 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
nicole
Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-14 23:08:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 20:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Oct 2016 21:05:37 GMT
Tags: graphics
nicole
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 43
2016-10-14 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142037 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 A few patches of disorganized deep convection have formed closer to the center of Nicole, although the majority of the cloud pattern is still comprised of low- to mid-level clouds and shallow convection. Based on a satellite intensity estimate of 65 kt from TAFB and earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt. The initial motion is 065/17. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. Nicole is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through southeastern Canada. The dynamical models forecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward speed during the 24-72 hour period. Subsequently, a new mid- latitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer Nicole northeastward at a faster forward speed. The guidance is still tightly clustered through 72 hours, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the guidance has again shifted northward, with the ECMWF in particular being faster and farther to the north than its previous run. Based on this, the latter part of the new forecast track is again nudged northward. The dynamical models remain in good agreement that Nicole should interact with the mid-latitude trough starting in 12 hours or less, with the models forecasting the winds to increase slightly and the central pressure to fall to 940-950 mb by 36 hours. As this occurs, the cyclone is most likely to develop into a post-tropical cyclone with a convection-less warm core secluded inside an encircling cooler air mass. However, an alternative scenario suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models is that organized convection re-develops inside the warm seclusion during the next 48-72 hours and allows Nicole to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics over sea surface temperatures of about 24C. The intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become post-tropical, but there is lower confidence that this will happen than on the previous advisory. As done before, the post-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and wind radii forecasts have been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 36.5N 55.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.3N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/0600Z 38.5N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1800Z 38.7N 47.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/1800Z 40.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/1800Z 47.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/1800Z 53.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
nicole
forecast
Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2016-10-14 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 142036 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
nicole
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] next »