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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 18
2016-10-27 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271431 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 122.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 122.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.3N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-27 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 08:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 08:37:33 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-10-27 10:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270837 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 Cool waters and strong southwesterly shear are causing Seymour to rapidly weaken this morning. The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. As a result of the degradation of the cloud pattern, subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are quickly decreasing, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt for this advisory. Seymour will be moving over SSTs below 25 degrees Celsius and into an area of vertical shear greater than 30 kt within 12 hours. These hostile conditions will cause a rapid decrease in wind speed during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Seymour is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday afternoon. The hurricane has turned north-northwestward, and is moving 335 degrees at 10 kt. Seymour is forecast to turn northward today, and then northeastward on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well offshore of the west coast of the United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered but has trended slightly faster this cycle. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.5N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 24.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 25.3N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2016-10-27 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270837 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 X( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-27 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 27 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 19.5, -122.1 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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