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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-27 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 18.7, -121.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 16
2016-10-27 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 ...SEYMOUR TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 121.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 121.7 West. Seymour is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Seymour is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday and a remnant low pressure system on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-10-27 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270233 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-26 23:06:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 20:44:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 21:03:35 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-10-26 22:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262039 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour has begun to quickly weaken. The hurricane's central dense overcast has taken on a distorted appearance, and the deep convection associated with the cyclone's circulation has become noticeably asymmetric. The eye has also become cloud-filled and has cooled rather dramatically in the last few hours. The recent deterioration of the cloud pattern is associated with a considerable increase of southwesterly shear over the cyclone. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T5.5/102 kt from both satellite agencies, and these estimates averaged with Dvorak CI-numbers, are used to lower the initial intensity to 110 kt. The shear, currently analyzed in the 15 to 20 kt range, is forecast to increase tremendously over Seymour during the next 24 to 36 hours as a strong mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough approaches the cyclone from the west. Since Seymour is a small tropical cyclone and will be traversing cooler waters by that time, the weakening trend should become increasingly more rapid. Global models show the vortex decoupling as a result of the strong deep-layer shear in 30 to 36 hours, and the official forecast shows Seymour degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours. The NHC track forecast represents an update of the previous one and is near the various model consensus aids. Seymour continues to gain a greater northward component of motion, and the initial motion estimate is 300/11. The cyclone is forecast to turn even more poleward and slow down during the next 24 to 36 hours as it rounds the western periphery of a mid-level high located west of the Baja California peninsula. While the vortex remains intact, the strong south-southwesterly flow associated with the upstream trough should cause Seymour to turn north-northeastward before shearing off and eventually dissipating. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different than the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.5N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.8N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 22.3N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 23.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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