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Tropical Depression Olaf Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-11 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Olaf Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for Baja California Sur Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is now moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected by Saturday night, with this motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through tomorrow. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-11 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-11 01:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 23:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 21:28:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 6:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.7, -113.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102352 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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