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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-09 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 108.9W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning from north of Sante Fe to Cabo San Lazaro to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from San Evaristo to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible before the hurricane nears the coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening and will spread northward through Friday. Tropical Storm conditions are occuring near the southern coast of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-09 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 092045 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 59 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 90 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAN JOSE CABO 64 71 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) LA PAZ 34 45 42(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LA PAZ 50 5 25(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LA PAZ 64 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-09 22:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092044 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF SANTE FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 19:53:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 17:53:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 15:34:31 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 19:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...STRENGTHENING OLAF EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... As of 12:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 21.8, -108.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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