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Hurricane Olaf Graphics

2021-09-10 13:48:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 11:48:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 09:29:24 GMT

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Hurricane Olaf Graphics

2021-09-10 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 08:44:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 08:44:23 GMT

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Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2021-09-10 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100843 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 13(14) 20(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 11

2021-09-10 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF STRADDLING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 110.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning south of Todos Santos and south of Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 110.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then turn westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within southern portions of their respective warning areas and will spread northward across portions of Baja California Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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