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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-10 01:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 6:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 22.7, -109.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-09-10 01:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092337 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move near or over the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few hours, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible before the hurricane reaches the coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in the next few hours and then spread northward through Friday. Tropical Storm conditions are occuring near the southern coast of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 22:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:47:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:47:00 GMT
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-09 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Olaf is quickly strengthening. An eye is now apparent in visible and satellite imagery. For most of the morning and early afternoon, a large and very symmetric eyewall was also apparent in radar data from Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, and estimates from the U-W CIMSS ADT have increased to 80 kt since then. The initial intensity has been set at 80 kt, in close agreement with all available estimates. Olaf has moved consistently to the right of the forecast track for the past 12 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction again. Olaf is now forecast to move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight. Regardless of the hurricane's exact track, it is very likely that a portions of southern Baja California Sur will get direct impacts from the eyewall of Olaf tonight. A large ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is still expected to cause Olaf to make a slight turn toward the northwest tonight or early Friday. The hurricane should then make a westward turn by early Saturday as it weakens and the ridge extends westward. Despite the recent adjustments required to the NHC forecast, this forecast is still generally supported by all of the typically-reliable track guidance. By around 60 h, Olaf will likely have lost all of its deep convection and become a shallow post-tropical low, steered primarily southwestward by low-level flow. The environment should support additional intensification during the next 12 h as Olaf approaches the Baja California peninsula, so any fluctuations in intensity will likely be driven by internal dynamics at this point. The appearance of Olaf's eyewall in radar imagery has degraded a little during the past couple of hours, but it is possible this is due to attenuation of the radar signal and not fully representative of the hurricane's structure. Regardless, Olaf should begin to weaken once it interacts with land or moves inland. By late Friday, the rate of weakening is forecast to increase due to a combination of continued land interactions and cool sea surface temperatures. Olaf should quickly weaken over the weekend as it continues to move over cold water, and it will likely become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is above the consensus at 12 h to allow for additional short-term strengthening, but follows the consensus closely at 36 h and beyond. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 22.2, -108.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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