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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 23.0, -109.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 10

2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100247 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move over the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next hour or so, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Friday as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). A weather station at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A Weatherflow station near San Jose del Cabo recently reported a pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the coast within the hurricane warning area at this time and should continue to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100247 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 109.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100247 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 63 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) LA PAZ 64 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LORETO 34 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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