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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-10 19:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 17:53:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 15:28:53 GMT
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olaf
Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-10 19:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUERTO CORTES... ...OLAF EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... As of 12:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.5, -112.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-09-10 19:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101753 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUERTO CORTES... ...OLAF EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 112.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward and around the peninsula to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 112.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). A weather station at Puerto Cortes recently measured a pressure of 1000.4 mb (29.54 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-10 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over the past several hours after the center moved across the southern portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system's organized convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully, scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into changes in Olaf's surface wind field. The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the next 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues weakening and turns westward away from land. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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