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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-06 04:56:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 02:56:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 02:52:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-09-06 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060253 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to spin down some. While there is some convection associated with the cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the center. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt. Given the lack of deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated. It is forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl. In about two days, an upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to begin a northeastward motion until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the previous advisory and the global model consensus. The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been contracted slightly. The wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN wind radii consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 39.6N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 39.7N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 39.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1200Z 39.8N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0000Z 40.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea/Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2016-09-06 04:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 060252 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT AUGUSTA ME 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 7 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 8 2(10) 2(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WORCESTER MA 34 15 6(21) 3(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 16 6(22) 4(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 13 5(18) 2(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) HYANNIS MA 34 28 5(33) 3(36) 7(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 34 7(41) 4(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PROVIDENCE RI 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 36 11(47) 5(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 34 12(46) 5(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NEW HAVEN CT 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 25 9(34) 4(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) HARTFORD CT 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 46 8(54) 4(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) NEW LONDON CT 50 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALBANY NY 34 7 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 13 7(20) 4(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 11 4(15) 2(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLIP NY 34 47 12(59) 5(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ISLIP NY 50 5 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 33 13(46) 6(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 26 12(38) 6(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 21 13(34) 5(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEWARK NJ 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 14 11(25) 4(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) TRENTON NJ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 26 14(40) 6(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) NWS EARLE NJ 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 8 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PHILADELPHIA 34 11 9(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ATLANTIC CITY 34 17 14(31) 5(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 8 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 9 8(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 34 7 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-06 04:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.6, -70.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 35
2016-09-06 04:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 70.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 70.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). Hermine is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday before turning toward the northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The Montauk Point buoy south of Long Island recently report a 43 mph (69 km/h) sustained wind and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently observed from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the warning area tonight and Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands, through Wednesday. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea/Brown
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