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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-05 20:12:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 17:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 15:05:38 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 19:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.1, -69.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 33A
2016-09-05 19:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051739 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 69.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 69.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the north with decreasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the New England coast through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength today. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. Nantucket Island recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands, through Wednesday. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-09-05 17:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051530 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 Corrected for initial motion in second paragraph Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a broad curved band of showers to the north of the center. High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt, both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 325/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 38.8N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0000Z 39.2N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1200Z 39.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1200Z 41.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-09-05 16:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051441 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a broad curved band of showers to the north of the center. High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt, both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 030/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 38.8N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0000Z 39.2N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1200Z 39.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1200Z 41.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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