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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-28 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 16.0, -63.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 15
2019-08-28 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea overnight, pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-08-28 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280249 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 63.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 02:31:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 00:31:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 21:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-28 02:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.8, -62.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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