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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-07 02:13:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 the center of Dorian was located near 37.4, -71.6 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 54A
2019-09-07 02:13:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 062350 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 54A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 71.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Fenwick Island DE, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Parson's Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusts of tropical-storm-force could still occur over portions of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, but these winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the North Carolina coast will continue to recede throughout the evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-09-07 01:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 23:53:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 21:24:51 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2019-09-06 23:04:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 062104 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 30(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 52(52) 20(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 80(80) 11(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 23(23) 30(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 6( 6) 86(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) 84(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 25(25) 34(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 63(63) 37(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 X 3( 3) 87(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 94(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 66(66) 7(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 23(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONCTON NB 34 X 8( 8) 62(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ST JOHN NB 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X 19(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 32 19(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) HYANNIS MA 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 61 13(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NANTUCKET MA 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 54
2019-09-06 23:01:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062101 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours. 2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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