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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 56

2019-09-07 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 070836 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE LOWER NORTH SHORE QUEBEC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 480SE 330SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-07 07:37:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 05:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 03:24:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-09-07 07:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 38.8, -69.1 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 55A

2019-09-07 07:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 070536 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 55A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 69.1W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico. * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Parson's Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter, Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern Canada tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). A NOAA buoy at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). A Weatherflow site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts during the next several hours. These conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine by this afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia later today, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells are increasing in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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