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Tag: dorian

Hurricane Dorian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2019-09-06 05:25:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 03:25:49 GMT

Tags: graphics storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-06 05:14:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 03:14:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 03:25:22 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hurricane graphics graphics hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-06 04:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:56:50 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 51

2019-09-06 04:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060253 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is now estimated to be 85 kt. Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72 hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds while moving near or over Nova Scotia. The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 33.8N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51

2019-09-06 04:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 060252 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) X(52) X(52) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 59(68) X(68) X(68) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 50(50) 33(83) X(83) X(83) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40) X(40) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 43(77) X(77) X(77) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 55(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 74(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 44(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 5 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 7 11(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) OCEANA NAS VA 34 29 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ELIZABETH CTY 34 74 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ELIZABETH CTY 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 74 15(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CHERRY PT NC 64 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

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