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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 50
2019-09-05 22:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 931 WTNT45 KNHC 052051 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with 700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt. The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed, with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous one. Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a hurricane-force extratropical low. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-09-05 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:51:03 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2019-09-05 22:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 052050 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 78(78) X(78) X(78) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 87(87) X(87) X(87) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 78(79) X(79) X(79) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 84(85) X(85) X(85) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) X(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 74(81) X(81) X(81) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 20(66) X(66) X(66) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) X(28) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 14(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 21(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 12(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 20(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 6 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 6 24(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 7 34(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) OCEANA NAS VA 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 29 52(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ELIZABETH CTY 50 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 26 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ROCKY MT NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 90 10(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 9 90(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 1 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) FAYETTEVILLE 34 23 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 80 16(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CHERRY PT NC 64 10 21(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 87 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 27 69(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 93 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 46 48(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SURF CITY NC 64 37 10(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) WILMINGTON NC 64 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 50
2019-09-05 22:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052050 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach SC * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (118 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting other portions of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Little River Inlet to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 50
2019-09-05 22:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052049 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 78.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT.......170NE 190SE 130SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 78.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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