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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-09-05 16:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 14:56:01 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 49
2019-09-05 16:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well- defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast. The Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a rise in the central pressure. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt. The central pressure of 958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is currently inside the eye. Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the initial motion is now 020/7. The hurricane is now moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed. This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 72 h. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous forecast. Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After 72 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 32.5N 79.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2019-09-05 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 051454 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 3(43) X(43) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 7(68) X(68) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 74(74) 3(77) X(77) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 79(79) 1(80) X(80) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 80(80) X(80) X(80) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) X(61) X(61) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 75(76) X(76) X(76) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 54(63) X(63) X(63) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 18(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 34 2 23(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 34(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 71(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 4 18(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 34 29 70(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 91(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 69(69) 12(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) FAYETTEVILLE 34 29 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 88 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 4 83(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 34 91 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 6 93(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 90(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 12 87(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 1 88(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 59 35(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SURF CITY NC 64 6 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 77 14(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) WILMINGTON NC 64 17 17(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 90 7(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) FLORENCE SC 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) LITTLE RIVER 64 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MYRTLE BEACH 64 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GEORGETOWN SC 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 49
2019-09-05 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...EYEWALL OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and also extended northward in the Chesapeake Bay to Drum Point, including the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach SC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Altamaha Sound GA to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Charleston International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). NOAA buoy 41004, currently located inside the eye, has reported a minimum pressure of 959.7 mb (28.34 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Awendaw SC to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Edisto Beach SC to Awendaw SC...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 49
2019-09-05 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051454 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...AND ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO DRUM POINT...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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