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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230234 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to survive the harsh thermodynamic and shear environment of the central Atlantic by producing intermittent small bursts of deep convection well to the east of the exposed surface center. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB this evening, and the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. Large-scale sinking air with low to mid-level associated relative humidities less than 40 percent along with increasing west-southwesterly vertical shear are expected to weaken Chantal to a remnant low by Saturday, and dissipate in less than 3 days. The initial motion is estimated to be southeastward, or 135/6 kt, around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The global and ensemble guidance continue to show an anti-cyclonic motion at a slower forward speed before the system dissipates over the weekend. The new NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a compromise of the NOAA HCCA model and the simple TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 37.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 37.8, -41.9 with movement SE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 41.9W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 41.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to slowly make a clockwise loop through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-08-23 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 230233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-08-23 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 41.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 37.1N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.9N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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