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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner, and is based primarily on the deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16 kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 39.4, -47.4 with movement ESE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 255 WTNT34 KNHC 220232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 47.4W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 47.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward Friday night then drift clock-wise southwestward to west-northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 254 WTNT24 KNHC 220232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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