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Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-21 10:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 40.3, -53.7 with movement E at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 2
2019-08-21 10:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 53.7W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly to the south. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-08-21 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
2019-08-21 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 02:34:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 02:34:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become Tropical Storm Chantal. The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to the consensus models HCCA and TVCN. Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After 48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance. Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the deep convection sooner than currently expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 40.2N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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