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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-08-22 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
2019-08-22 20:59:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 18:59:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:24:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-22 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221434 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt. The cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear. However, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating completely by 96 h. The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 38.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 36.6N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-08-22 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 221433 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-22 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL MOVING SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 38.8, -43.8 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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