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Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
2019-08-21 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 20:34:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 20:34:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-21 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data. The cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few days. This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant low by Friday. Given the current appearance of the system, loss of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur much sooner than earlier anticipated. This is in good agreement with the latest HWRF model run. The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is likely to turn northwestward to northward. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.8N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-08-21 22:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 212033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-21 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED CHANTAL LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 39.8, -49.1 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 4
2019-08-21 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...DISORGANIZED CHANTAL LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 49.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 49.1 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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