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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
2019-08-22 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 20:33:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-22 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and current satellite intensity estimates. While the cyclone continues to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. There is no change to the previous intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h. The initial motion is now 110/12. A building low- to mid-level ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents. The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.1N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-08-22 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 523 FONT14 KNHC 222031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-22 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 38.1, -42.4 with movement ESE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 8
2019-08-22 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 42.4W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 42.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and it is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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