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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-08-09 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for more than 12 hours. Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is increasing near the estimated center while banding features are becoming better defined. The system has sufficient convective organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical depression, and advisories are being initiated. Based on a ship report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be near 30 kt. Upper-level outflow from the tropical cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next week. With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane within a couple of days. The official forecast is similar to the model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be conservative. By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to weakening. Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt. The steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several days. A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-08-09 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 090232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 15 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 16(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 51(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 47(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 68(76) 1(77) X(77) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 31(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-08-09 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-08-12 04:51:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion tropical depression