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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-09-15 04:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150248 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-14 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 20:41:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 20:41:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-14 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142035 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Visible satellite imagery shows that the depression is still poorly organized. The circulation is highly elongated, and the associated deep convection is not well organized due to moderate easterly shear. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, and leans toward the lower Dvorak T-numbers provided by SAB given the poor satellite presentation. The vertical shear over the system is expected to decrease within the next day or two, which should provide an opportunity for the system to strengthen. Both the statistical guidance and the global models predict modest intensification over the weekend, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm in 36 to 48 h, with some additional strengthening through day 3. After that time, drier air and increasing shear is likely to cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 280/4 kt. The depression is forecast to move generally westward at a slower-than-climatological rate during the next couple of days while it is situated within an area of weak steering flow. Later in the period, a mid-level trough that is expected to deepen well southwest of southern California should steer the depression slowly poleward by early next week. However, there is increasing spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, and there is lower confidence in the track forecast at those times. The NHC track forecast is once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.9N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 16.7N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 17.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.6, -123.3 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 123.3W ABOUT 1010 MI...1620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 123.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is expected through tonight, but the depression could become a tropical storm late Friday or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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