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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-02 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020240 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-01 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:42:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:42:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-01 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present. That said, the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt. No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h and beyond. Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago. Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast, and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-01 22:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 14.9, -109.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-01 22:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 109.7W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is anticipated for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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