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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-02 04:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 02:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 02:42:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-02 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the center of circulation this evening, the banding features still remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory. Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge, while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE consensus and the ECMWF global. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-02 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 15.4, -110.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-02 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 110.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-02 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 5 57(62) 28(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 X 11(11) 52(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 34 3 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 8(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 57(69) 10(79) X(79) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 11(44) 1(45) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 14(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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