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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-08 10:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 48.6W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 48.6W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.1N 45.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.7N 41.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.1N 28.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 56.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-08 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 02:33:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 03:31:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-08 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Microwave data indicate that Gabrielle has a well-organized central core. However, the convection isn't very deep, perhaps because of dry air entrainment, with most of the convection in a band southeast of the center. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which agrees well with an ASCAT-B pass of 40-45 kt and the latest TAFB fix. The storm is moving steadily west-northwestward around the southwestern side of a mid-level high over the eastern Atlantic. This high is forecast to slide eastward as the westerlies intensify due to flow around Gabrielle's southern flank in the far north Atlantic. Models are in very good agreement overall, but there continues to be some speed differences. The NHC forecast is on the faster side of the guidance, near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance and the previous forecast, since the typical error in the higher latitudes is to be too slow. The low-shear area that was supposed to materialize in the subtropical Atlantic near Gabrielle this weekend did not occur, and as a result there is very little guidance suggesting that the cyclone will become a hurricane. The storm still has a day or two to strengthen over relatively warm waters before shear increases markedly, and water temperatures plummet north of the Gulf Stream. The intensity forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one at 36-48 h, although still above the model consensus, and is similar thereafter. All models still show extratropical transition by 72 h and dissipation by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 35.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 38.8N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 41.7N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 47.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 54.5N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-08 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Gabrielle was located near 32.0, -48.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 19
2019-09-08 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 48.0W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The storm is forecast to turn northward over the central Atlantic by Sunday night and then accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Sunday. Gabrielle is forecast to become an extratropical low and begin weakening on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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