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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-07 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 08:45:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 08:45:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-07 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070837 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Gabrielle's cloud pattern has temporarily degraded over the past several hours. With the vertical shear pattern shifting from the east, the shrinking, shapeless, convective mass is displaced to the west of the surface circulation. A blend of the Dvorak subjective satellite T-numbers yields a current intensity estimate of 35 kt, and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate as well as an AMSU-A analysis come in at 39 kt. The initial intensity is generously above these data and is set at 45 kt out of respect for the earlier scatterometer wind analysis. Gabrielle has moved to the northeast of the upper cut-off low which has been producing a moderate to strong southerly shear environment over the past several days. The upper wind pattern in this quadrant of the upper low is more easterly, and although still quite strong, a little more diffluent. This slightly more favorable flow aloft, along with increasingly warmer sea surface temperatures in the region, should allow Gabrielle to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. Toward the end of the forecast period, weakening is forecast to commence as the cyclone turns northeastward and quickly moves within deep-layer strong southwesterly flow associated with an approaching mid-latitude baroclinic frontal zone. Interaction with the frontal system as well as the cyclone traversing significantly decreasing oceanic temperatures (less than 20C), should induce a rather rapid extratropical transition around day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one is above all of the guidance with the exception of the HWRF. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt. Azores high pressure to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to build over the north central Atlantic, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward later today. Afterward, southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned front should force Gabrielle to turn northward and northeastward on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast was made through the entire forecast in order to align more with the NOAA HFIP HCCA model. Some adjustments to the wind radii were made based on a 06 Sep 2320 UTC ASCAT-A/B ambiguity analysis. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 30.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 31.9N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 33.3N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 35.4N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 38.0N 47.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 43.6N 40.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 50.7N 26.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 59.4N 7.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-07 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE TEMPORARILY STRUGGLING OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Gabrielle was located near 30.9, -42.1 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-07 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...GABRIELLE TEMPORARILY STRUGGLING OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. A turn to the north is then forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-07 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 070836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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