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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-07 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070836 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 70SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 41.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.9N 44.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.3N 46.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.4N 47.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.6N 40.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.7N 26.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 59.4N 7.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-07 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:35:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-07 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070233 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection has persisted mainly over the northern semicircle of Gabrielle since this afternoon, but has been trying to move a little closer to the low-level center. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB suggests slight strengthening has occurred since the previous advisory, and a recent scatterometer pass measured a cluster of 45-kt winds. Assuming some slight undersampling in that area by the scatterometer, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The shear that continues to impact Gabrielle is forecast to decrease through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the cyclone will me moving over waters near 29 C. And, although some dry air will continue to surround the circulation, the cyclone should be able to gradually strengthen over the next few days due to the other favorable environmental conditions. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs will cause the cyclone to weaken. An approaching mid-latitude trough, courtesy of Dorian, will help transition Gabrielle to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The only notable change to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory was to make Gabrielle a hurricane a little earlier, and the official advisory is very near the corrected consensus HCCA. Gabrielle has been moving to the northwest, or 320/16 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur on Saturday as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle builds westward. The aforementioned mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north on Sunday night, then accelerate the cyclone to the northeast from Monday through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.3N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-09-07 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 070233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-07 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 6 the center of Gabrielle was located near 29.3, -40.9 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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