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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-08 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 080231 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-08 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 48.0W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 48.0W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 47.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.7N 43.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 54.5N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-07 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:31:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-07 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Gabrielle is still a disorganized tropical cyclone. The center is definitely more apparent--after its morning re-formation--but it appears to be wobbling around within a larger oval-shaped circulation. Most of the deep convection is also displaced to the west and southwest of the center due to about 20 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on earlier scatterometer data. The cyclone has been rotating around the northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, but as this low weakens, Gabrielle is expected to recurve around the western side of a mid-tropospheric high located near the Azores. Gabrielle should then get picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies in about 48 hours, at which point it will accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The track models remain in good agreement on Gabrielle's future trajectory, but there are some speed differences, particularly between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF once the cyclone becomes extratropical. The updated NHC forecast splits the difference, lying near the various consensus models, which makes it just a little west of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Gabrielle has about another 36 hours over waters that are 26C or warmer, but the moderate-to-strong vertical shear currently affecting the system is likely to continue, and then increase significantly starting in 48 hours. Therefore, only modest strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast is now near the high end of the intensity models. All the global models indicate that Gabrielle should become an extratropical cyclone by 72 hours, and then it should dissipate by 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 31.9N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 34.9N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 37.7N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 40.8N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 46.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 52.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-07 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 072034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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